000
AXNT20 KNHC 250525
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA WITHOUT REACHING THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 
8N15W...TO 4N25W 5N32W 4N40W...TO THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH 
OF 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 31W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 35W AND 
51W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTH CENTRAL 
NEW MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
U.S.A. GULF COASTAL STATES. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST REACHES 32N77W. THIS 
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
A WARM FRONT CONNECTS TO THE COLD FRONT AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS...INTO EAST TEXAS
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURVING 
FROM MEXICO NEAR 20N100W...THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT 
IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
IS RELATED TO THE 21N62W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH 
THAT REACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS PARTS OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA...AND FROM SOUTH AMERICA...NORTHEASTWARD. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
THAT ARE...TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 78W...FROM 13N TO 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 78W...AND TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N62W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 15N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 54W AND 62W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 36N41W TO A 30N48W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 34W AND 60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATE STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 
28N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 23W. A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 33N10W IN THE 
WATERS OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER BERMUDA 
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. A SEPARATE SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 7N30W
15N29W 22N29W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
35N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT