000
AXNT20 KNHC 240539
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST BORDER OF SIERRA 
LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 7N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N15W TO 5N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W...INTO 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 2W AND 4W...AND FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 10W 
AND 24W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N
BETWEEN 40W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND A DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE NORTH OF 35N BETWEEN 70W AND 95W.
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO FRONT
IS MISSING. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN 
ALABAMA/SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF 
COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS
FROM 27N TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 73W. UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN 
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND FROM SOUTH AMERICA...
NORTHEASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
23/2100 UTC UNTIL 24/0100 UTC FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 62W AND
64W JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THAT 
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 74W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR 
CURACAO FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC WAS 0.50 OF AN 
INCH. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
19N60W 18N65W 16N70W 16N78W 13N80W 11N81W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 25N66W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS 
CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 
15N BETWEEN 53W AND 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N71W 
24N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 28N 
BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...ACROSS THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TOWARD 22N44W...AND THEN 
EVENTUALLY EASTWARD TO AFRICA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 22N
BETWEEN 33W AND 50W. THIS AREA HAS BEEN COVERED BY A TROUGH
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORTS
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 27N40W TO
20N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N46W TO 25N48W. RAINSHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 10N28W 22N28W BEYOND 32N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT