000 AXNT20 KNHC 222346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 6N16W ALONG 2N29W 1N39W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 3W-15W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST AT 22/2100 UTC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF EARLY ON MON. THIS SCENARIO IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N W OF 90W WITH PATCHES OF FOG/HAZE BEING REPORTED. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 26N90W WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE W GULF W OF 87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW GULF EARLY MON AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE N GULF THROUGH TUE. SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TUE AND WED AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT THEN WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU EVENING AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 20N. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 NEAR 28N75W WHICH IS BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E AND A COLD FRONT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OF THE W ATLC. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N72W TO 24N72W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N70W 27N70W TO JUST N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200/225 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N47W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N44W ALONG 30N41W 22N42W TO 16N45W AND A PAIR FOR SURFACE TROUGHS TO THE W...ONE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE UPPER LOW ALONG 25N47W TO 22N54W AND THE SECOND EXTENDING E/W FROM 27N48W 26N53W TO 28N57W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 36W-49W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 175 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 17N E OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF GEORGIA COAST EARLY TUE AND STALL OFF THE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COAST BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO W ATLC WED THROUGH FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW