000 AXNT20 KNHC 221747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N17W TO 01N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 12W...AND FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 09W-15W. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02N23W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W TO 04N43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH AXIS ALONG 90W THAT STRETCHES NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N/28N ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 28N74W. WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE BASIN...MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE NOTED IN SHIP... BUOY...AND OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NW GULF AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THIS FRONT RATHER WEAK AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THAT IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE N-NE TRADES ARE GENERATING LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 71W...AND IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NICARAGUA... FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 81W-84W. WHILE FRESH TO STRONG N-NE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOST OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT REMAINS ANCHORED BY A TRIO OF HIGH CENTERS...THE MAIN 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N62W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W-SW FROM THE 1025 MB HIGH TO A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N74W TO A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 60W-70W HOWEVER HAS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS ALL DUE IN PART TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS PROGRESSED OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD WITH AXIS FROM 34N73W TO 28N77W AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N76W TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE VERY NEAR THE FRONT REMAINS LIMITED...HOWEVER WITH A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGHS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE MAXIMIZED GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 68W-74W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 29N47W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AS A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 33N45W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N40W TO 20N41W TO 16N45W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 24N AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 24N. TO THE WEST OF THIS FRONT...TWO WAVES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT REMAINS ANALYZED FROM 28N47W TO 24N50W TO 21N60W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 23N AND A WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N48W TO 29N55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN