000 AXNT20 KNHC 221130 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A SMALL PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 3N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM 3N19W ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON AXIS W OF 20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 34W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE NW GULF ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST FROM GALVESTON BAY ALONG 28N96W TO INLAND S OF CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR 27N97W. NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM CORPUS CHRISTI REVEALED NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SRN ALABAMA...SRN GEORGIA...AND NRN FLORIDA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS MEXICO...AND A WRN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REACH THE NW GULF EARLY MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS EVENING...LIMITING ANY STRONG DEEP CONVECTION TO ONLY A FEW CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOP SHOWERS MOVING WITH THE GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF NRN COLOMBIA GUSTING TO 25 KT. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 57W...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STATIONARY SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS TO THE E OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...SUPPORTING ITS SURFACE 1013 MB REFLECTION NEAR 33N44W AS WELL AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N41W TO 23N40W TO 14N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50-90 NM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. ALSO...AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED SE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSE FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 29N41W TO 24N43W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS DETACHED FROM 290N46W TO 24N52W TO 22N58W WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY TUESDAY WITH LIMITED CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA