000 AXNT20 KNHC 211131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A SMALL PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 3N22W. THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM 3N22W ALONG 1N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 22W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING AS SHOWN BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE UPPER RIDGING AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS NW TO SE ACROSS MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 10-20 KT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW PRECEDES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS BRIEFLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN LIFT NORTHWARD BY LATE SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTRODUCE A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MORNING WHICH WILL PROVIDE NORTHERLY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF ON MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT IS NOTICED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS MORNING...LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES ARE OBSERVED BASIN-WIDE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF NRN COLOMBIA. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO MODIFY THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE WRN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 57W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N67W WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE NE OF THIS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N54W TO 25N65W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT REMAINS LIMITED...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE MAXIMIZED. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE. A SLOW MOVING 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 28N44W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY EARLY SUNDAY. CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 23N41W TO 19N42W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 15N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 130 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND WITHIN 250 MN ON THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE FROM THE LOW CENTER. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 42N15W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA