000
AXNT20 KNHC 191136
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 10N15W TO
5N16W 4N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N21W TO 4N30W 3N40W...
TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 51W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE 
SOUTH OF 3N TO THE EAST OF 3W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 
16W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 
10N TO THE WEST OF 50W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW 
MOVES FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH AMERICA TOWARD 30W... 
GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY WIND FLOW AS IT REACHES 30W...AND 
THEN THE WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS IT MOVES TOWARD 
AFRICA. THE RIDGE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WIND FLOW STARTS 
ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 9S34W...TO 11N31W 19N30W AND 28N29W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N76W TO THE 
BAHAMAS JUST TO THE NORTH OF ANDROS ISLAND. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W TO THE NORTH OF LAKE 
OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TO 26N93W IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA. THE FRONT 
BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 26N93W TO 26N95W AND 23N97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 
29N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W...
AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM CUBA TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WIND FLOW ULTIMATELY COMES FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AFFECTING THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA/SOUTH AMERICA AND 100W.
RESULTANT MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE 
AREA IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE-SCALE WIND FLOW FROM THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS MOVING TOWARD AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N43W-
TO-13N55W TROUGH. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS 
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE 
CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE 
TO LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 35N47W...TO 32N53W 27N64W TO 24N74W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 22N50W 17N51W AND 13N55W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W
TO 31N35W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N35W TO 28N38W 
27N40W AND 22N43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 24N41W...
AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N41W 14N50W 10N60W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 23N27W AND 13N30W. 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT