000
AXNT20 KNHC 180602
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 12N16W...
AND IT CONTINUES TO 8N20W AND 3N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 
3N29W TO 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W...INTO 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N78W IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
30N94W IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR
29N96W...BEYOND 28N100W...INTO MEXICO...AND CURVING BEYOND THE 
FAR WEST OF TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD AND GENTLE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ON TOP OF RESULTANT MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE 
MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE-SCALE 
WIND FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THAT IS NORTHWESTERLY FROM
THE AREA OF 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...EVENTUALLY BECOMING 
CYCLONIC NEAR 18N60W. THIS WIND FLOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE 32N45W
18N56W TROUGH. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS 
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE 
CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE 
TO LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 26N48W 18N56W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO
29N40W AND 23N48W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 23N48W TO 20N55W 
19N60W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINSHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 28N40W 24N46W AND 21N52W. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W 
25N45W 22N54W 20N60W...TO 19N72W IN NORTHERN HAITI. A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032W MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
33N59W TO 30N69W BEYOND 29N78W AND FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 
32N33W TO 29N27W TO 8N32W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 
20W AND 30W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 29N32W 
25N37W AND 21N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT