000
AXNT20 KNHC 161139
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES CLOSE TO THE COASTAL BORDER OF
SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W AND FINALLY 4N15W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N15W TO 2N23W 4N28W 1N40W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W/47W...AND CONTINUING INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S51W. DOES NOT REACH THE PRIME MERIDIAN IN AFRICA. 
THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 2N TO 4N20W 
2N37W...CURVING THROUGH 1N50W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR 
ALONG 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N 
TO THE EAST OF 40W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LAST COLD FRONT AND TROUGH.
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING BLOWN FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER 
OF THE AREA TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. A SURFACE RIDGE 
COVERS THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT 
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS IN
48 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N60W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND 
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 18N86W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO 
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH 
OF 17N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA ALONG 78W. OTHER PRECIPITATION IS 
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS 
THAT ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE 
TO LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
3N48W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA...
THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 28N66W TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 26N60W TO 22N70W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N55W TO 28N60W TO 22N70W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND 18N86W IN 
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
21N39W TO 9N46W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 24N 
BETWEEN 35W AND 43W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N29W...TO 30N36W 25N46W
AND 22N64W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT