000 AXNT20 KNHC 160001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE ITCZ ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 3N CONTINUING ALONG 2N7W 5N21W 3N35W 4N45W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 40W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS EXITING THE N GULF INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 86W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF AT 15/2100 UTC EXTENDING FROM 224N96W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DENSE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 27N W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED AT 15/2100 UTC BY A 1031 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N86W AND IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD LEAVING THE E GULF COAST ENJOYING CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THIS IS ALSO ALLOW THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH TUE. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF TUE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA SW TO NE MEXICO BY EARLY WED AND FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA SW TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING THEN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTEND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA NEAR HOLGUIN ALONG 20N83W TO ALONG JUST OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM W OF THE FRONT FROM ACROSS CUBA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS BASIN N OF 15N. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N E OF 70W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS MOVING OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N58W ALONG 26N67W ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO CUBA NEAR HOLGUIN WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS JUST TO THE E OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH. A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 31N16W 26N29W TO 17N46W AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS TO THE SE TO INLAND OVER AFRICA ENHANCING HIGH CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 9N37W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20N16W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN GUINEA BISSAU AND SW PORTION OF THE WESTERN SAHARA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH ABOUT 250 NM SW OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE E ATLC ON WED. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL SHIFT E TO OVER THE W ATLC MON INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH WED WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA THU BEFORE STALLING FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW