000 AXNT20 KNHC 142348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE ITCZ ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 4N CONTINUING ALONG 5N13W 3N31W 2N45W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 33W-39W AND WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 39W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ANOTHER LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH NEAR ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 19N92W NW TO 23N97W EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DENSE LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS SW OF A LINE FROM 26N96W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W AND INLAND OVER MEXICO ALONG THE E SLOPES OF SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A MIX OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE GULF S OF 27N LEAVING THE N GULF COAST ENJOYING CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE OF GULF SUN WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY MON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE TUE REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO NE MEXICO EARLY WED FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA ALONG 20N85W TO ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS BASIN E OF THE ABOVE FRONT. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING WHILE THE COLD FRONT N OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES EASTWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE U.S. EXTENDS OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION OVER BERMUDA EXTENDING ALONG 26N74W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM W OF FRONT N OF CUBA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 70W. A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC TO 15N E OF 50W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 26N18W 20N20W 13N19W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL REACH FROM 32N60W TO E CUBA SUN AFTERNOON MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND THE E ATLC BY WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD E ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST LATE WED AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW