000 AXNT20 KNHC 130543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N15W TO 03N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 30W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING THAT SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SW ALONG 29N83W TO 24N90W TO 21N95W THEN SOUTH TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION FREE...HOWEVER S OF 25N ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF THE FRONT...AND S OF 21N IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EAST OF THE FRONT...A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF ALONG 26N82W TO 23N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS EASTWARD CLEARING THE GULF WATERS BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NE WINDS REMAINING BRISK THROUGH SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN EXCEPT FOR A VERY SMALL PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA TO ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NE U.S. WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED TO 32N70W AND A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 28N74W TO 27N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 28N. EAST OF THE FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25N72W TO 32N63W. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD BY MORNING AND BRING STRONG W-NW WINDS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC OFFSHORE ZONE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 30W-60W IS FAIRLY BENIGN THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 50W STEMMING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 42N50W. FINALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC REMAINING N OF 12N AND IS PROVIDING INCREASED CLOUDINESS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS S-SW TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN