000 AXNT20 KNHC 101137 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N16W TO 01N30W TO 01N41W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THE LAST FEW DAYS...THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS INDUCED CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST WITH A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER NEAR 30N94W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW TO 25N94W THEN TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 85W-94W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS...N-NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WEST OF THE FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EASTWARD RETREATING RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING S-SE WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS W OF 90W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GULF ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL THEN BE ON THE DOOR STEP OF THE NW GULF WATERS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 08N56W NW TO OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N84W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED N OF 10N AND IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-76W...AND OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 60W-68W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 45W UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE...THESE FAIR CONDITIONS ARE REINFORCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST-WEST ALONG 29N/30N BETWEEN A TRIO OF HIGHS...ONE A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N53W AND TWO 1021 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 29N65W AND 29N74W. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N69W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 63W-74W. FARTHER EAST...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS LOCATED N OF 23N BETWEEN 30W-45W AND SUPPORTS A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N40W AND A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N44W AND THE OTHER ANALYZED FROM 25N39W TO 15N43W. MOST OF THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED EAST OF THE LOW CENTER N OF 30N BETWEEN 32W-38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO LOCATED EAST OF THE DETACHED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 34W-39W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES NEAR 38N25W SOUTHWARD TO 20N30W. LASTLY...A SURFACE TROUGH...PRIMARILY DENOTING A WIND SHIFT...IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N17W TO NEAR DAKAR SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN