000 AXNT20 KNHC 072348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 6N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N15W ALONG 3N30W 4N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 40W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE W ATLC DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING PROVIDING LIGHT ANT-CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. DRY AIR ALOFT IN WSWLY FLOW IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE NRN GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-93W WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS FROM 30N93W TO 26N95W. A PATCH OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 87W-90W. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY INLAND OVER TEXAS WHICH MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE NW GULF. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COASTLINE BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS THE BASIN BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WITH LIKELY ISOLATED SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NW AND ERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MOISTURE...REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONTINUES TO LIE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA ACROSS WRN CUBA TO HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. THIS IS HELPING SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NELY SURFACE FLOW WITH AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF HONDURAS AS WELL AS INLAND OVER HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. A SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO OVER THIS AREA EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATE SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N61W DOMINATES THE WRN ATLC PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 58W. FARTHER E...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 42W SUPPORTING A 1014 MB LOW JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N44W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N44W 20N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY E OF THE AXIS UNDER THE AREA OF STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT N OF 24N BETWEEN 39W-43W. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF SOUTH AMERICA AND SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 12N54W TO 7N58W. THE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 43W-61W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 45N18W WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 34W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED BETWEEN THE AZORES ISLANDS AND THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N22W. THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER W AFRICA AS WELL AS NEAR THE LOW CENTER. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON