000
AXNT20 KNHC 071705
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 5N17W. THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO 2N30W TO 2N40W TO BRAZIL NEAR 
1N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA 
NEAR 27N81W. 10-15 KT SE-S WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA 
GULF COAST FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 83W-85W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE 
NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 
88W-95W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 
90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING 
THE SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH 
CENTRAL GULF AND FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM 20N60W TO PUERTO RICO AT 18N66W TO HISPANIOLA AT 18N70W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N E OF 74W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA. 
ELSEWHERE ...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 
10N-17N N BETWEEN 78W-88W MAINLY DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING 
W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. FURTHER MORE...PATCHES OF BROKEN TO LOW 
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N 
AND E OF 70W TO INCLUDE THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
AXIS ALONG 70W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND SHOWERS 
OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...TOGETHER WITH THE W CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N62W. A 
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N44W TO 23N53W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 20N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N BETWEEN 38W-45W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITH 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT 
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N20W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER THE 
CANARY ISLANDS AND MOROCCO. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC 
FRONT TO MOVE E TO 30N39W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA