000 AXNT20 KNHC 051146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N10W TO 03N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N14W TO 03N27W TO 02N37W TO 03N44W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 40W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE THE GULF BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA W-SW TO THE BULK OF THE TROUGH'S ENERGY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 28N104W. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ANALYZED INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AS A ROBUST 1029 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 27N89W. THE HIGH IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND BECOME DIFFUSE AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRONG OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. THIS IS RESULTING IN A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG 16N70W TO 14N77W TO 10N81W. THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS HOWEVER...EARLIER ASCAT PASSES REVEAL THAT SOMEWHAT STRONGER NE WINDS WERE STILL OCCURRING WEST OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SE OF THE FRONT E OF 74W...ANOTHER AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT W OF 72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN EXITING AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 40N48W TO 29N56W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N52W TO 27N58W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE EXITING TROUGH AND A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND COMMENCE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INFLUENCE EASTWARD TO 65W AND IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN