000 AXNT20 KNHC 050555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU JAN 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N11W TO 03N20W TO 03N37W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 39W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE THE GULF BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW LOUISIANA W-SW TO THE BULK OF THE TROUGH'S ENERGY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 28N107W. A COLD FRONT REMAINS ANALYZED INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AS A ROBUST 1028 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 28N87W. THE HIGH IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. THIS IS RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MEANDERS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W AND CONTINUES SW TO 15N70W TO 14N75W. THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH EARLIER ASCAT PASSES REVEALING THAT SOMEWHAT STRONGER NE WINDS WERE STILL OCCURRING WEST OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SE OF THE FRONT E OF 73W...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N73W TO 12N84W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 43N54W TO 29N59W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N54W TO 25N60W TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE EXITING TROUGH S OF 26N AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION STATIONARY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS CURRENTLY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND COMMENCE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INFLUENCE EASTWARD TO 65W AND IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N16W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN