000 AXNT20 KNHC 040558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N13W TO 05N19W TO 04N26W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W TO 01S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 26W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE N OF 21N. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS A VERY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER NE LOUISIANA NEAR 32N91W...AND AN ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS ACROSS THE SE CONUS...GULF BASIN...AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A FEW SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC THAT DIPS SOUTHWARD TO A BASE IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 26N72W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG 23N70W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO EAST OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N76W TO THE NORTHERN NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 15N83W. WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS AN INGREDIENT LACKING IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MORE IMPORTANTLY HOWEVER IS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN STRONG W OF 72W GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 04/0320 UTC DEPICTED THESE NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL WITHIN E-NE TRADES AND A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 68W-74W...FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 63W-67W... AND S OF 14N E OF 69W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLIDING EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING GRADUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY WITH STRONGER N-NE WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF THE EASTERN US SEABOARD AND EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG 71W TO A BASE NEAR 26N. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N63W TO 23N70W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT AS DEPICTED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 04/0142 UTC. S-SW WINDS ALSO REMAIN STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN