000 AXNT20 KNHC 031137 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 8N13W CONTINUING SW ALONG 4N26W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 39W TO 1S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE FRONT PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BASIN LEAVING BEHIND A COLD AIR MASS AND STRONG NLY WINDS WHICH CONTINUE TO ADVECT COLD AIR. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE NW CORNER DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER ERN TEXAS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS THAT WERE IMPACTING THE SW GULF HAVE NOW DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK S OVER THE BASIN WITH AXIS CURRENTLY FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE MEXICAN COASTLINE N OF TAMPICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS S OF 24N SUPPORTING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN BESIDES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE OVERCAST SKIES ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST LIKELY DUE TO WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BASIN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NW CORNER ALLOWING THE STRONG WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SPREAD EWD AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM WRN CUBA NEAR 23N79W TO BELIZE AT 18N88W...AS OF 0900 UTC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS AND WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OF 20-30 KT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN. 15-20 KT ELY TRADEWIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME STRONGER WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ARE NOTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRONG N-NE WINDS BEHIND IT AND SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W CONTINUING ACROSS THE NRN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO WRN CUBA AT 23N79W...AS OF 0900 UTC. A LINE OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 75 NM AHEAD OF THE AXIS WITH STRONG NWLY WINDS BEHIND IT REACHING GALE FORCE N OF 27N. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 32N64W 26N70W 20N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ERN CONUS AND FAR WRN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THE E ALONG 40W SUPPORTING A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 35N43W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 27W SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS S OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR 27N24 CAUSING LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS IS PROVIDING RIDGING ACROSS THE FAR ERN ATLC PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON