000 AXNT20 KNHC 030549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 9N13W CONTINUING SW ALONG 6N26W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 42W TO 1S46W. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 21W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE FRONT PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOW MOVED OUT OF THE AREA INTO THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. A SMALL PORTION EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SRN MEXICO ALONG 20N87W TO 18N93W. A COLD AIR MASS IS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WHICH CONTINUE TO ADVECT COLDER AIR. LIGHTER WINDS ARE IN THE NW CORNER...WHILE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL NOTED IN THE SW CORNER S OF 22N W OF 94W UNTIL 0600 UTC. LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK INTO THE NRN GULF WITH AXIS CURRENTLY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS SINKING ACROSS THE NRN GULF BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BASIN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NW CORNER ALLOWING THE STRONG WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SPREAD EWD AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOW ENTERED THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS WRN CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N87W...AS OF 0300 UTC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS WITH STRONG N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OF 20-30 KT. A SHEAR AXIS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 20N79W TO 17N84W DEPICTING STRONGER NE WINDS OF 20 KT CONVERGING INTO WEAKER 10-15 KT WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. 15-20 KT ELY TRADEWIND FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME STRONGER WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ARE NOTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRONG N-NE WINDS BEHIND IT AND SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W CONTINUING ACROSS THE NRN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO WRN CUBA AT 23N80W...AS OF 0300 UTC. A LINE OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG THE AXIS WITH STRONG NWLY WINDS BEHIND IT CURRENTLY UP TO 25-30 KT...BUT WILL BE REACHING 35 KT OR GALE FORCE N OF 27N BY 0600 UTC. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 32N66W 27N71W 23N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ERN CONUS AND FAR WRN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THE E ALONG 44W SUPPORTING A PAIR OF 1028 MB HIGHS NEAR 29N51W AND 34N49W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 29W SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS IS PROVIDING RIDGING ACROSS THE FAR ERN ATLC PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON