000 AXNT20 KNHC 020544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 8N13W TO 7N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N14W ALONG 4N22W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4S39W. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 19W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SPEED ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG 26N90W 23N95W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W...AS OF 0300 UTC. A VERY SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW GULF FROM 18N24N BETWEEN 92W-99W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 130 NM BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF. THE SE GULF REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE ERN CONUS IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT AND PROVIDING MAINLY WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE BASIN WITHIN 24 HOURS. STRONG NLY WINDS OF MOSTLY 25 KTS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE FAR SW CORNER STARTING AT 0600 UTC. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAINLY SW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE W ATLC. MOST OF THE BASIN IS COVERED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A PATCH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF HONDURAS WHICH IS HELPING ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 84W-89W. NE-E TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS THE AREA REACHING 30 KTS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE W ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC TONIGHT ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 64W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS IS BEGINNING TO EMERGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC LATER TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...A WEAK 1023 MB HIGH IS N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 29N75W. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THE E ALONG 32N55W 29N66W BECOMING DISSIPATING TO 28N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH THEN EXTENDS FROM THE TAIL OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG 24N75W 22N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N-29N. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 46W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 33N26W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 30W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS S OF THE RIDGE ALONG 27N25W TO 13N38W SUPPORTING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON