000 AXNT20 KNHC 010548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W CONTINUING WSW ALONG 3N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 32W TO 3S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 26W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IN SW FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN AND FAR ERN CONUS...WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY FAIR SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES BASIN-WIDE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N79W IS HELPING CONTRIBUTE TO THE FAIR WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF FOG ALONG THE GULF COASTLINE BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 86W AND THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 97W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SRN MEXICO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF AROUND 1200-1800 UTC WITH STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND IT WHICH WILL REACH GALE FORCE IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... LITTLE HAS CHANGED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NE-E TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS THE AREA REACHING 30 KTS IN THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND W ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY AND INTO THE W ATLC MONDAY ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE FAR WRN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 80W WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N79W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NE ALONG 68W IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY SINK S INTO THE AREA SOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO ERN CUBA ALONG 25N72W TO 19N75W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 33N28W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 27N26W TO 13N40W IS PLACING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SE ATLC AND SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 27W-51W...AS WELL AS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE N AND LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE ITCZ...ENE TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE E ATLC REACHING 25 KTS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON