000
AXNT20 KNHC 291715
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA AT 10N14W TO 6N22W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO N BRAZIL ALONG 6N22W 3N40W EQ49W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN THE PRIME 
MERIDIAN AND 6W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N 
BETWEEN 12W-15W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 31N84W. 5-10 KT 
SE FLOW IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH FAIR WEATHER. A 1016 
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS NEAR 30N95W. 5-10 KT SW FLOW IS 
OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH FAIR WEATHER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S 
MEXICO S OF 22N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER 
THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY. ALSO EXPECT 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN  
E OF 80W WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN 
CONTRAST 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH 
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN MOVING W WITH 
THE TRADEWINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO 
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE 
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
AXIS ALONG 65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING ALL DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS FOR...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 
13N...AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF BELIZE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N74W. A STATIONARY 
FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS 
AT 24N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N79W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE 
WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 
NM. ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
30N40W TO 25N45W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1042 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED W OF SPAIN NEAR 44N15W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTEND S 
FROM THE HIGH TO 30N30W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.       

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA