000
AXNT20 KNHC 250543
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N11W TO 
03N25W TO 06N45W TO 05N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 22W-34W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON 
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 19N40W TO 07N45W 
LARGELY AS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 
20N45W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 09N-20N BETWEEN 32W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 27N95W. A WARM FROM EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO THE 
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE 
LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONTS. NORTHERLY GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF FROM 21N-25N W OF FRONT. 
15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ARE OVER THE 
WARM SECTION E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. 
EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE GALE TO WEAKEN TO 30 KT IN 24 
HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A MONSOON TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS MOVING W. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N63W TO 29N75W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. A 1024 MB HIGH IS  
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 34N45W TO 25N47W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED NEARBY AT 25N43W PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 37W-40W. A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF 
SPAIN AT 41N20W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO 20N32W. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE E 
WITH SHOWERS WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH REMAINS 
QUASI-STATIONARY. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA