000 AXNT20 KNHC 241739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT DEC 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ BEGINS INLAND OVER WRN AFRICA REACHING THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W CONTINUING ALONG 5N17W 3N26W 4N36W 4N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 19W-23W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 32W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE NE PORTION REMAINING COLD FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST N OF TAMPA NEAR 28N83W TO 28N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 26N90W TO A WEAK 1020 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 26N96W CONTINUING SWD TO 20N96W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 24N94W TO 19N94W...AS OF 1500 UTC. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND NEAR THE LOW CENTER. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE SE TEXAS COAST AND INLAND OVER MUCH OF TEXAS. OVERCAST SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KTS. WINDS IN THE SW GULF ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY 0600 UTC TOMORROW. THE REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE NE PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD WHILE SEPARATING FROM THE STATIONARY PART WHICH WILL SLOWLY RETREAT BACK TO THE NW AND STALL BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... LITTLE HAS CHANGED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG NE-E TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS PERSISTING ACROSS THE BASIN REACHING 30 KTS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW WITH SOME STRONGER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN HONDURAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S AND WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTLINE. ALOFT...MOSTLY DRY AIR COVERS THE BASIN IN SELY FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 32N75W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL AT 29N81W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W SUPPORTS A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N62W WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE E NEAR 23N44W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N41W TO 20N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 35W-43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-27N BETWEEN 42W-47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1040 MB HIGH NEAR 44N13W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ALSO HELPING SUPPORT SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS N OF THE ITCZ REGION FROM 11N-24N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON