000
AXNT20 KNHC 241117
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N11W TO 
04N33W TO 06N43W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 20W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 33W-40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 91W-94W. 
ELSEWHERE... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N80W 24N94W 20N95W AND IS MOSTLY 
VOID OF PRECIPITATION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF 
THE FRONT. 15-20 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT E 
WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE 
GULF. THE FRONT HAS LOST UPPER AIR SUPPORT AGAIN AND STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PRESENTLY COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AN AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO 
ADVECT FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE W GULF WITH CONVECTION. 
FURTHER MORE EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A GALE TO DEVELOP OVER THE W 
GULF S OF 25N W OF FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A MONSOON TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER NE GUATEMALA AND BELIZE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 
88W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER NE NICARAGUA...HONDURAS 
...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOVING W. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN E 
OF 72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT 
TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N64W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N42W TO 
22N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEARBY AT 24N42W PRODUCING ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 35W-43W. A 1041 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF SPAIN AT 44N14W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S 
FROM THE HIGH TO 20N30W. EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH TO 
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. 
ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO 30N80W WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA