000
AXNT20 KNHC 240524
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N11W TO 
04N33W TO 06N43W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 20W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 33W-40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 90W-93W. 
ELSEWHERE... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N82W 23N95W 19N95W MOSTLY VOID OF 
PRECIPITATION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 
15-20 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT E WINDS ARE E OF 
THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE GULF. THE FRONT 
HAS LOST UPPER AIR SUPPORT AGAIN AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE PRESENTLY COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT 
THE FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ALSO EXPECT AN AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT FROM THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE W GULF WITH CONVECTION. FURTHER MORE 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS 
FOR A GALE TO DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF S OF 27N W OF FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A MONSOON TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER NE GUATEMALA AND BELIZE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 
88W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER NE NICARAGUA...HONDURAS 
...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOVING W. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN E 
OF 72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT 
TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N57W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N40W TO 
22N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 
35W-44W. A 1041 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF SPAIN AT 45N14W. A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO 20N30W. EXPECT THE TROUGH 
TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N67W TO 30N80W WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA