000
AXNT20 KNHC 221119
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
9N13W TO 9N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N18W TO 4N40W TO 3N51W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-13W... 
AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 24N-32W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1009 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS AT 
28N96W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO LOUISIANA AT 
30N93W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND 
OVER E TEXAS E OF 98W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S 
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-88W. ELSEWHERE...S 
OF THE WARM FRONT 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WITH FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70'S. 
EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST 
UNTIL 1200 UTC... THEN START TO MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS A COLD 
FRONT THEREAFTER DUE TO A SECONDARY PUSH WITH UPPER LEVEL 
SUPPORT. ALSO EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN 
FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF WITH SHOWERS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 
GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 
73W-78W. 20-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA 
RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE 
CARIBBEAN AND NICARAGUA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 81W-85W. PATCHES OF 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT FROM THE ATLANTIC 
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND N VENEZUELA. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED 
RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
FURTHER MORE EXPECT THE GALE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N62W. A 
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N37W 
TO 23N41W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
E OF THE FRONT. RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES 
FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 55W-60W MOVING W. A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
W OF SPAIN AT 38N17W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO 
22N20W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA