000
AXNT20 KNHC 191126
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER SOUTHERN WEST AFRICA TO 
THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 7N17W OVER THE 
ATLANTIC. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 4N30W 4N40W 3N51W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 17W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N77W. A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR 29N94W. 10-15 KT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER 
S TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE JUST INLAND OVER SE TEXAS IN 24 HOURS 
WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA MOSTLY 
DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER N OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND 
GUATEMALA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND 
PUERTO RICO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THERE TO BE 
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT 
IN 24 HOURS FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD 
ISLAND. ALSO EXPECT A SHEAR LINE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE 
NORTHERN SHORE OF HISPANIOLA.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N59W TO THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS ALONG 24N65W 23N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM 
OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
30N50W TO 24N50W TO 18N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM 
OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER 
ANTILLES FROM 16N49W TO 7N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM 
OF THE TROUGH. A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 
38N26W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO 20N40W. EXPECT 
THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS TO 30N48W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A 1026 MB HIGH 
TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N72W IN 24 HOURS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA