000
AXNT20 KNHC 190522
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS AFRICA. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 
5N23W 5N40W 4N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N 
BETWEEN 18W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N79W. A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. 15 
KT NE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE NE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. 
A 1020 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. 20 
KT WINDS ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE 
SOUTHERN GULF. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE JUST INLAND OVER SE 
TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA MOSTLY DUE TO THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE FURTHER N OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. 
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER E CUBA...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THERE TO BE LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLAND. 
ALSO EXPECT A SHEAR LINE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 
SHORE OF HISPANIOLA.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N63W TO THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N50W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 20N50W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH 
IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 15N49W TO 9N53W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 48W-50W. A 1033 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 37N27W. A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO 20N40W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE 
E TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A 1026 MB HIGH TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
NEAR 32N71W IN 24 HOURS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA