000 AXNT20 KNHC 161742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF WESTERN LIBERIA AND SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N11W TO 8N17W 6N30W 5N36W 7N50W. ISOLATED AND MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ORGANIZING ITSELF IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT HAS REACHED THE TEXAS GULF COAST WATERS. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO MEXICO NEAR 24N100W AND 25N103W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 29N91W AND BEYOND 25N97W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL VENEZUELA...THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N74W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 9N78W IN EASTERN PANAMA...ACROSS COASTAL PANAMA INTO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N85W...AND BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 76W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TO 15N61W IN NORTHERN COASTAL MARTINIQUE. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 15N61W TO 14N66W 13N72W 12N76W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N60W 14N63W 13N66W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N66W 13N74W 12N79W. THE AREAS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH APPEAR TO OVERLAP WITH THE SHEAR AXIS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N74W 16N79W 15N83W...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI TOWARD THE COASTAL BORDERS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 65W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS DUE TO A 25N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND A TROUGH. THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N51W...TO 20N52W...AND TO 15N61W IN NORTHERN COASTAL MARTINIQUE OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 25N47W 20N47W 12N50W 7N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N49W 17N55W 15N61W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N28W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 31N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT SOLELY FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N24W...TO 28N30W 22N34W AND TO 14N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT