000
AXNT20 KNHC 141734
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AFRICA AND IT ENDS NEAR 8N9W. 
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N9W TO 7N26W 7N37W 7N51W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 
4N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE 
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER NEAR 31N84W
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF 24N83W 22N87W 25N89W 26N90W 27N91W IN LINES OF LOW CLOUDS  
AND SURFACE CONFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL VENEZUELA...ACROSS 
NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N75W AT THE COLOMBIA 
COAST TO 11N80W...BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED 
TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 76W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 17N60W...
ACROSS GUADELOUPE TO 14N65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF 60W...AND
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. A DISSIPATING COLD 
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N72W TO 18N80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N71W...
ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 18N84W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W 25N59W 20N59W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W
25N60W 20N72W JUST OFF THE COAST OF HAITI. A DISSIPATING COLD 
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N72W TO 18N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N56W 20N58W 17N60W...ACROSS 
GUADELOUPE TO 14N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.  
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 26N58W 21N64W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...
AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 41W AND 57W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS 
ALONG 15N54W 21N47W 25N43W 28N40W 32N33W...TO A 1032 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N26W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE 
NORTHERN HALF OF MOROCCO...ACROSS THE WESTERN SAHARA...
TO A 22N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N33W 13N43W
AND 6N49W. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 50W.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT