000
AXNT20 KNHC 091800
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE TO 
8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N16W TO 6N26W AND 8N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 18W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS 
MEXICO GIVES RISE TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS DIVIDED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N64W IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN...IT CUTS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 17N80W...
CONTINUING ALONG AND BEYOND THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 
81W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 82W. A STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
TO LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 16N81W AND 13N83W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS 
ALONG 12N73W 11N80W BEYOND 9N84W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
FROM COASTAL HONDURAS TO THE CAYMAN ISLAND AND 20N BETWEEN 84W
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING 
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA AND JUST OUTSIDE THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO 21N 
BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN...TO 28N73W...ACROSS ELEUTHERA AND THE EXUMA 
CAYS...CROSSING CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A SHEAR
AXIS CONTINUES FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 16N81W AND 13N83W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST 
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM A 25N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N57W
20N66W...BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 30N43W TO 24N44W 20N48W 19N56W...
THROUGH THE DOMINICA PASSAGE TO 15N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 42W AND 
45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 45W AND 
64W. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS 
OR SO FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT