000 AXNT20 KNHC 091132 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI DEC 09 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS A PORTION OF AFRICA WITH THE ITCZ AXIS ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N12W CONTINUING ALONG 8N15W 6N21W TO 6N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 21W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 16W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ZONAL SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING THE GULF SE OF A LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND A 1029 MB HIGH OVER E MARYLAND. IN SPITE OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT... MOSTLY OVERCAST LOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE GULF WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE US CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. THE RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN MON AND TUE ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR CIEGO DE AVILA ALONG 19N84W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 18N W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A VERY BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS CARIBBEAN INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF LINE FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W ALONG 16N77W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W. HOWEVER...EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS USHERING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 19N BETWEEN 71W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA W OF 66W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO STREAM EASTWARD WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 14N69W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL LIFT N SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N67W ALONG 27N74W TO ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N76W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES CUBA NEAR CIEGO DE AVILA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN E/W ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 22N64W COVERING THE AREA FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 56W-71W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 20N66W TO 23N75W. A SECOND MORE SYMMETRICAL UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N46W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N45W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 24N43W CONTINUING ALONG 20N48W INTO THE TROPICS ALONG 19N56W TO GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 59W-64W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC N OF 26N E OF 30W. A VERY BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-80W AND FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER LOW AND E ATLC UPPER TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 30W-43W AND FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 36W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NW AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST SAT OVERTAKING THE CURRENT FRONT THEN WILL STALL FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE SAT NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA LATE SUN AND MON. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THIS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MON AND TUE THEN WILL MERGE WITH THE TROUGH AND WILL SHIFT E BY LATE TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW