000 AXNT20 KNHC 081720 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU DEC 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS IN NORTHWESTERN SIERRA LEONE. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEARBY BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA TO 8N20W 6N34W 5N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH THE AREA IS MOVING NORTHEAST- WARD...OUT OF THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS DIVIDED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IT CUTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N75W...CONTINUING BEYOND THE BORDER OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 77W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EVENTUALLY THROUGH NORTHERN COASTAL CUBA NEAR 23N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N86W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 20N86W AND IT CONTINUES TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 15N80W TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N74W 11N80W BEYOND 10N84W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF ABACO ISLAND TO THE NORTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND...TO NORTHERN COASTAL CUBA NEAR 23N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N86W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 20N86W AND IT CONTINUES TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W 26N74W BEYOND 23N80W IN NORTHERN COASTAL CUBA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N56W 21N64W...BEYOND HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 32N41W TO 26N44W 21N50W 16N57W... THROUGH THE SAINT LUCIA CHANNEL...TO 14N62W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 57W AND 68W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W AROUND THE 30N44W CYCLONIC CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT