000
AXNT20 KNHC 041143
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 11N15W AT THE COAST OF 
NORTHWESTERN GUINEA TO 8N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N17W
TO 4N26W 5N36W 5N44W. NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...BETWEEN THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GUATEMALA...BEYOND SOUTH AND CENTRAL 
FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PUSHING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...AND BEYOND TEXAS. SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES 
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

FROM THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 
26N63W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N72W IN THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA...TO NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W. THE SOUTHERN END 
OF A COLD FRONT REACHES 32N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 
32N56W TO 26N60W AND 20N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING 
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NEAR 
18N62W TO 10N64W ALONG THE VENEZUELA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N55W TO 24N59W TO 20N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 20N64W
14N70W 12N75W IN THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 48W
AND 60W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA. SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW 
SPANS THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO 
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES ALONG 11N73W TO 10N82W BEYOND 
9N84W IN PANAMA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS EITHER TO THE EAST OR TO 
THE WEST OF THE 32N63W 11N73W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. 
SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE 
WEST OF THE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N40W...TO THE EAST OF THE 32N63W 
11N73W TROUGH. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N40W 20N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 32W AND 41W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N 
TO 16N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES 32N25W TO 
24N29W TO 14N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT