000
AXNT20 KNHC 031147
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS AFRICA...THROUGH THE 
NORTHERN PART OF THE IVORY COAST...TO NORTHERN SIERRA LEONE.
THE ITCZ STARTS AT THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 19N13W TO
9N18W 5N23W 5N33W 5N40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO TO SOUTH FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PUSHING 
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS. 
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE 
PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA OF 
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 14N69W. UPPER LEVEL 
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
14N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE 
GUADELOUPE PASSAGE...TO 10N63W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE 
WATERS FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO 12N 
BETWEEN 58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA 
OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 20N63W 16N66W 13N70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL 
FOR BARBADOS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING ON 02/1200 UTC WAS AT LEAST
2 INCHES. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN AND 
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN AS LONG AS THE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SURFACE TROUGH PERSIST IN THE SAME 
AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N73W IN COASTAL COLOMBIA TO 
10N80W...AND BEYOND THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W
TO 26N67W AND 20N69W JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO
26N66W AND 20N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE 
NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. THIS TROUGH REALLY MAY BE 
CLOSER TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STILL RELATED TO SOME 
COMPARATIVELY COLDER OR COOLER AIR THAT IS TO THE WEST OF IT.
A COLD FRONT ENDS NEAR 31N56W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES 
FROM 31N56W TO 27N58W AND 23N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W 26N58W TO 20N61W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N36W. CYCLONIC 
FLOW AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 
16N BETWEEN 22W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N33W 29N34W 
BEYOND 32N34W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 31W AND 
37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT