000
AXNT20 KNHC 030547
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS AFRICA ENDING IN THE 
CENTRAL IVORY COAST. THE ITCZ STARTS AT THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 
9N13W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 10N17W 4N34W 9N50W...TO THE COAST OF 
GUYANA/VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 16W AND 
19W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS 
THE AREA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO TO SOUTH FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PUSHING
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO ACROSS AND THROUGH 
TEXAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE 
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA OF 
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 14N69W. NORTHERLY TO 
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN
65W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 21N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE GUADELOUPE 
PASSAGE... O 10N63W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED 
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N62W 
20N61W 22N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS 
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 20N63W 13N70W. THE 
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BARBADOS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING ON 
02/1200 UTC WAS AT LEAST 2 INCHES. SIMILAR RAINSHOWERS FROM 9N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N75W 
IN COASTAL COLOMBIA TO 10N80W...AND BEYOND 8N83W IN WESTERN 
PANAMA. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE AS LONG AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SURFACE TROUGH PERSIST IN THE SAME 
AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W
TO 25N68W AND 20N70W JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N64W 24N67W 
20N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N 
BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N56W
TO 24N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N55W 25N57W 23N59W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N34W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN
22W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N33W 29N34W BEYOND 
32N34W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT