000 AXNT20 KNHC 021746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1735 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG THE COASTS OF GHANA AND COTE D'IVOIRE...ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS GUINEA NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING WESTWARD ON A SNAKE-LIKE PATH ALONG 11N21W 5N30W 9N40W ENDING AT 7N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100-150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. THIS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF 20N...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE FAR SE BASIN AND FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 25N E OF 83W. THE REST OF THE GULF IS COVERED BY LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE MOVING WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE WRN ATLC THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE SUNDAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY W OF 70W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST OF GUATEMALA PROVIDING DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO ALMOST THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA...EXCEPT THE FAR SE BASIN...WHERE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 18N59W TO 11N62W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 64W S OF 16N. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO ACROSS COSTA RICA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM ALONG THE COAST WRN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 62W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N76W TO THE SRN BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 21N73W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. WEAK TO MODERATE DIVERGENCE FLOW ALOFT N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER N OF 27N BETWEEN 64W-70W. TO THE E OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN THE WRN UPPER TROUGH AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NE ATLC. THIS FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N56W TO 24N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 170 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A DISSIPATING 1021 MB LOW IS NEAR 28N33W. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 33N31W TO 28N29W TO 23N34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 28W-34W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED N OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N25W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA