000 AXNT20 KNHC 020545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF AFRICA NEAR 9N13W EXTENDING ALONG 5N24W 9N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 16W-24W AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 39W-44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 27W-39W AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 44W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 89W WITH ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO JUST INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 80W-82W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E THROUGH SUN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF SUN EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHEAR LINE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER E JAMAICA TO 10N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE SHEAR LINE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO BONAIRE IN THE ABC ISLANDS. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT E OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 20N58W BETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THE NW TRINIDAD GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. SHEAR LINE WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL SLOWLY MOVE W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE E CONUS TO OVER THE FAR W ATLC AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 65W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED ALONG 27N68W TO 23N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N70W TO BEYOND 32N68W. A COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N57W TO 24N58W. DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 58W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N OF 27N BETWEEN 64W-72W. A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM 20N51W TO BEYOND 32N53W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 10N60W ALONG 22N55W TO BEYOND 32N54W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 40W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N30W AND SUPPORTING A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 32N28W WITH WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING N AND A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N24W ALONG 29N24W TO 25N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO 32N AND 30W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL/E ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD E ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH SUN THEN WEAKENS MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW