000
AXNT20 KNHC 012353
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST THU DEC 01 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS AFRICA ENDING OVER 
IVORY COAST NEAR 6N4W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF 
LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC ALONG 
7N20W 8N40W 7N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 15W-23W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 25W-51W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY NEAR 
37N85W. 10-15 KT EASTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. COLD 
AIR ADVECTION HAS MOSTLY ENDED. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ENTIRE 
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND SURFACE EASTERLY WINDS TO 
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N75W TO W 
PANAMA AT 9N82W. STRONGER WINDS AND RESIDUAL BROKEN LOW CLOUDS 
ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS...HONDURAS...N NICARAGUA...JAMAICA...AND E 
CUBA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 81W-86W TO INCLUDE 
COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 65W-74W. 
ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE VENEZUELA TO THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 11N63W 16N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...FOR THE 
SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT FOR 
THE SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND SE CARIBBEAN...TO 
PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC FROM 30N69W TO E CUBA AT 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1006 MB LOW IS NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 
35N60W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 30N58W TO 24N60W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. NEAR 
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT. FURTHER S... 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES 
FROM 8N-19N BETWEEN 57W-60W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC...A 1016 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N26W. A WEAK 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW ALONG 30N24W 27N30W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. EXPECT...FOR THE COLD 
FRONT ALONG 58W TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. 
EXPECT THE OTHER TWO FRONTS TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT THE 
SHOWERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO PERSIST. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA