000 AXNT20 KNHC 300543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF NEAR 11N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N15W ALONG 8N21W 7N33W 5N48W TO NEAR 10N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 9W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 33W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF TO OVER THE W ATLC WHILE THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS OHIO AND WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF INTO THE W CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 82W. DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH PATCHES OF SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE SW GULF NEAR 22N94W. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OFF THE TEXAS COAST SUN AND REACH FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AT 30/0300 UTC ACROSS CUBA NEAR CIEGO DE AVILA JUST E OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG 15N81W TO THE COAST NEAR THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N82W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W AND INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 73W WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 72W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS ALL BUT THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 65W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W ALONG 10N81W TO ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N83W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA E OF 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM A NEWLY FORMED 1007 MB LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N61W ACROSS GUADALOUPE TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W-64W. THIS IS LEAVING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM E CUBA TO SW CARIBBEAN WED THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 30/0300 UTC NEAR 32N74W ALONG 27N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA NEAR CIEGO DE AVILA CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 56W-70W AND EXTENDS S TO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 28N65W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N61W TO A NEWLY FORMED 1007 MB SURFACE LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N61W CONTINUING ACROSS GUADALOUPE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N40W ALONG 23N51W TO 33N55W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN W OF 57W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 53W-59W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM NEAR 20N55W TO 30N58W. THE PERSISTENT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N43W TO 22N47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER SPAIN. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WED NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH 1007 MB LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW