000 AXNT20 KNHC 291805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES SOUTHEASTERN GHANA. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 7N26W AND 9N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 19W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER OF EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA/WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...TO 27N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WESTWARD BEYOND 23N ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... THROUGH 23N80W IN CUBA...THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 17N82W...AND CUTTING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS THAT SPANS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND TO THE WEST OF 80W. WITHIN 250 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS THROUGH 30N82W 23N83W 16N84W. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND STREAMING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 27N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N67W...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 17N62W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 10N64W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 29/1200 UTC WAS 1.75 INCHES FOR BARBADOS...FOR GUADELOUPE 0.60 OF AN INCH...FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO 0.08 OF AN INCH...AND FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS 0.28 OF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION STILL IS POSSIBLE FOR BARBADOS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N60W 25N62W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 27N TO 32N. THIS TROUGH IS THE REMAINS OF THE 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF 24 HOURS AGO. A THIRD TROUGH IS ALONG 26N42W 21N45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN MOROCCO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...THROUGH 28N22W TO 27N35W TO 29N40W. THIS TROUGH EXISTS IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT