000 AXNT20 KNHC 291146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA JUST INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 10N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N16W ALONG 7N23W 7N33W 5N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 21W-41W AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 36W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 29/0900 UTC EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO OVER CUBA JUST W OF HAVANA. DRY STABLE AIR IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH PATCHES OF SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE E GULF E OF LINE FROM THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W AND CLEARING SKIES FURTHER W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF THE FRONT WITH A 1023 MB HIGH IS INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST W OF TUXPAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP W OF 95W THU THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AT 29/0900 UTC ACROSS CUBA NEAR CIENFUEGOS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200/275 NM W OF THE FRONT INCLUDING PORTIONS OF W CUBA AND HONDURAS. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 76W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS N OF 13N BETWEEN 63W-76W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE NOTED ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 76W AND N OF 13N BETWEEN 65W-76W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W ALONG 9N79W TO ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N83W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 64W-76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO NEAR 13N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT NE THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N69W TO NEAR 27N73W AND CONTINUES TO RETREAT NE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT AT 29/0900 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 30N78W JUST OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST TO OVER CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR SAGUA LA GRANDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS N ALABAMA. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO GIVE THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 62W FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N63W SW TO INTO THE N CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SUPPORTING A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N56W ALONG 24N61W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE W ALONG 31N63W TO 25N67W. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N51W ALONG 23N51W TO 33N54W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM NEAR 13N60W ALONG 22N55W TO 30N51W. THE PERSISTENT WEAK SURFACE LOW IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N40W TO TO 26N42W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT 350 NM NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 30W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO A POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW