000 AXNT20 KNHC 290545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 9N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N15W ALONG 5N23W 6N38W TO 8N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 29/0300 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO HOMESTEAD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT. DRY STABLE AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO CENTRAL YUCATAN NEAR 21N89W AND CLEARING SKIES TO THE W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF THE FRONT WITH A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE SW GULF NEAR 21N95W AND A 1025 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF BY SUNRISE TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP W OF 92W THU THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AT 29/0300 UTC ACROSS CUBA NEAR COLON W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180/250 NM W OF THE FRONT INCLUDING W CUBA AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 76W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS N OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-76W. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE RESULTING IN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE NOTED ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 76W AND N OF A LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W TO 12N76W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W 11N78W TO ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N83W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 66W-76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W TO NEAR 13N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TUE THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N69W TO JUST E OF THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N76W AND CONTINUES TO RETREAT NE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT AT 29/0300 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH 30N79W ACROSS THE SE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO HOMESTEAD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120/150 NM W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE N 31N TO INLAND OVER NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO GIVE THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 65W FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N62W S-SW TO INTO THE N CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SUPPORTING A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH FROM 31N57W ALONG 25N62W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N52W ALONG 23N51W TO 33N55W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 11N57W ALONG 21N57W TO 30N56W. A PERSISTENT WEAK 1020 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N41W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ABOVE SURFACE LOW ALONG 41W/42W BETWEEN 22N-26N. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT 350 NM NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 40W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO E CUBA TUE NIGHT THEN WILL CONTINUE E MERGING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO A POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW