000 AXNT20 KNHC 281709 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST THROUGH 11N15W IN GUINEA TO 9N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N18W TO 7N30W AND 7N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...BEYOND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA ABOUT 50 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS...AND THEN CURVING THROUGH HONDURAS INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS... THROUGH 30N82W 23N83W 16N84W. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 17N69W 15N74W 12N76W AND 10N77W. THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FIND THEMSELVES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING NEARLY 24 HOURS AGO FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. THAT COVERAGE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD WITH TIME. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS NOW ARE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W. THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS STRONG DURING THE NEARLY 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD...STRONG ENOUGH IN ORDER TO GIVE A 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 2.42 INCHES TO GUADELOUPE...AND 1.28 INCHES TO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. TRINIDAD REPORTED A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 0.80 INCHES. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS...AND THEN CURVING THROUGH HONDURAS INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS... THROUGH 30N82W 23N83W 16N84W. MERIDA REPORTED A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 0.75 INCHES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 65W FROM 11N TO 22N. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN SCATTEROMETER WINDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO 10N77W... TO 10N AT THE COSTA RICA COAST...CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 28N58W...TO A 25N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N66W AND TO 17N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO 15N74W 12N76W 10N77W. A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 26N38W TO 22N40W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N53W 28N57W 25N61W. HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 32N BETWEEN 31W AND 65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS NOW ARE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N19W...TO 16N20W AND 10N25W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 23N28W AND 13N29W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT