000
AXNT20 KNHC 262346
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 11N14W AND CONTINUES TO 6N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
6N21W TO 5N30W TO 6N35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 20W-30W... 
AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 30W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 45W-49W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 56W-60W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER SE TEXAS. A 
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM SW 
LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS ALONG 30N93W 27N97W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. 
20-25 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE TROUGH. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE-E RETURN 
FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH 
AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER 
THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N 
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. 
ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE W GULF N OF THE FRONT.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 
11N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NW OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 74W-78W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 76W-85W. ELSEWHERE A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N64W TO 9N63W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 62W-66W. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 68W-73W. EXPECT...PREFRONTAL 
CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT 
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.      

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N72W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 
1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N57W. A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 27N60W 
20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER 
1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N37W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW. EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM 
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA