000 AXNT20 KNHC 261753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N14W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N18W ALONG 6N22W 7N31W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 18W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 89W FROM ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS AND IS LOCATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER TROUGHS. THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH IS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ACROSS NW MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHILE THE OTHER IS OVER THE W ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE E COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA INTO THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH RETURN FLOW. REMNANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N87W TO OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN GALVESTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THIS EVENING THEN EXTENDING FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY MON MORNING AND MOVING E OF THE GULF MON NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR SAGUA LA GRANDE TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENDS OVER HISPANIOLA. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A DISTINCT BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS JAMAICA ALONG 17N80W TO SE NICARAGUA NEAR THE COSTA RICA BORDER DIVIDING THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY STABLE AIR TO THE W AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR TO THE E. HOWEVER...FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 84W. OTHERWISE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-82W WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MOIST SECTOR. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM SAINT LUCIA OVER TOBAGO TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE GUYANA AND VENEZUELA BORDER BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E SUN NIGHT DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TUE WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE INTO A SHEAR LINE BY WED. A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FAR E CARIBBEAN MON WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 26N71W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR SAGUA LA GRANDE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 31N57W AND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N56W TO 29N57W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 25N62W THEN AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO OVER HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE LOW WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 29N60W TO 33N57W AND SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N31W WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NW TO BEYOND 33N34W AND SE TO 22N27W SUPPORTING A RAPIDLY WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 31N37W AND A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N32W ALONG 28N31W TO 23N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 27N-31N. A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH IS BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CENTERED NEAR 30N43W WITH A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH ABOUT 400 NM N-NE OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA MON REACHING FROM 31N76W TO W CUBA TUE BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON WED. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY SUN AND DISSIPATE BY TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW