000 AXNT20 KNHC 261141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 08N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N17W TO 06N30W TO 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 21W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE GULF BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W TO 30N87W THEN INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE LOCATED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...AND THE OTHER APPROACHING THE GULF FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...IT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N78W. THIS IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH BRISK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD N OF 24N BETWEEN 84W-93W. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST BY LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT N-NW GALE FORCE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 21N79W TO 17N85W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N75W. WITH VERY LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 83W-87W. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HOWEVER...SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM ACTIVE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THIS MORNING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO 10N79W TO INLAND OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. WHILE MOST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 74W-84W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 74W. THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE EXPERIENCING INCREASED CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING AND GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EAST OF BARBADOS FROM 08N56W TO 14N58W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED EAST OF THE AXIS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC...BUT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INCREASED CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 33N59W TO 27N70W TO A BASE OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO 25N63W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND FROM 18N TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY W OF 54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N78W. NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N33W AND SUPPORTS A WEAKENING 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N36W. A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED SE OF THE LOW IS ANALYZED FROM 32N33W TO 27N33W TO 21N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 28W AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN