000 AXNT20 KNHC 251740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1735 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WRN AFRICA THROUGH GUINEA ENTERING THE ATLC WATERS ALONG 10N14W QUICKLY ENDING AT 8N16W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N16W ALONG 4N30W TO 8N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED W OF THE ITCZ FROM 13N53W TO 7N55W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 80-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 42W-51W AND E OF 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS HAVE TURNED E AND SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING...N OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W ACROSS WRN CUBA INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF THEN S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N84W 24N90W 18N94W. THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE HINDERING THE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. CURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY E OF 91W. LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER MOST OF THE GULF N OF THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED OVER THE FAR SE BASIN...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20-25 KT AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 30 KT ARE OBSERVED E OF 86W S OF 26N. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ERN BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS SUNDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE ATTENTION HAS TURNED TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL GYRE APPEARS TO SLOWLY BECOMING ORGANIZED. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 16N W OF 71W. ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A SPECIFIC LOCATION FOR A LOW LEVEL CENTER...COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THIS REGION. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL BASINS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS S OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-71W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING WESTWARD AND INTO THE AREA OF ATTENTION. A DRY UPPER ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS GROUP OF ISLANDS S OF 16N WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL N ATLC...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR REGION ALONG 32N54W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG 26N65W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND INTO CUBA ALONG 21N77W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL ENTER THE WRN ATLC THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD. FARTHER AHEAD...AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N42W KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. TO THE NE OF THIS LOW LEVEL HIGH CENTER...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS OVER THE ERN ATLC REFLECTING A SURFACE 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N35W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SE AND THEN S FROM THE OCCLUSION POINT INTO OUR AREA ALONG 32N30W AND CONTINUES SSW ALONG 25N31W TO 22N38W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA